Bit of a waffler this one so if you need weather facts (well, expected facts), scroll down.
My long range winter weather forecast thoughts were for a rather cold December, a milder interlude towards the end, an unsettled January with some colder bits with a return to winter proper in February – and I had February down as the most significant of the months for wintryness. I did also say that this winter would either be colder or snowier (or both) than the last one…I couldn’t quite work out which.
December I am happy with though I didn’t expect it to be quite that severe on my long-range forecast, my milder weather for Christmas took quite a bit longer to arrive than expected and January I’m ok with.
To be happy with my original long-term winter forecast, I really do need a cold and/or snowy February.
Going into February with temperatures about to reach 12’C – it wasn’t looking too good until I looked at my favourite model this morning which suddenly showed -10’C Siberian cold with loads of snow over the south of the UK by Valentine’s Day – I started to get excited!
Now I have seen models predicting severe winter weather so many times over the years that have just not produced anything for the UK – they do for much of Europe but it never quite gets this far west. The last couple of winters and this one have been a bit different from the normal though.
I like to think I am too wise to get excited about one or two models matching my long-range expectations, as they have let me down so many times in the past.
So, I am just going to say that my confidence in a significant spell of wintry weather in February, which was around 80% originally, and had dropped to 30% until this morning, has now risen to say, 50%.
Something is definitely brewing. But it won’t be here until mid February, perhaps not even until March. It might be as I expected originally – it might just be a glancing blow. Monday’s update should see more confidence in the solution.
But for now, the jetstream is heading straight towards us (please can you let me know if you experience increased stress levels around you or within yourself over the next few days…just a theory I am working on) which means wind and rain, though the rain probably won’t reach the south of the UK – the midlands and the north could get quite a soaking.
Friday – cloudy and noticeably windy. Perhaps some bits of light rain but mild, 11’C.
Saturday – still windy, Reading should be to the south of the rain band and if the sun comes out which is possible but not especially likely, it could actually feel quite ok, I don’t rule out a 13’C! Equally there may be some patchy light rain too though.
Sunday – very similar to Saturday, perhaps with an increased chance of some light patchy rain, less chance of sunny breaks, 12’C.
Monday should see some more organised rain and slightly lower temperatures of 9’C.
Tuesday sees high pressure building, so it could be quite sunny, 8’C.
Wednesday might see us picking up air from north Africa but don’t get excited – during summer this would mean hot and potentially thundery, in February it means nothing like. 8’C, probably dry, probably some sunshine. I’m not especially confident on my forecast for this day but it will be something like this.
Then it is a question of where does this big deep pool of cold air coming from Siberia go. Will it reach the UK? If so, when? Or will it travel further south towards Italy and Spain? Monday – I should know better.
Either way, still expecting more wintry weather in March.