Last week when I made my forecast, I was getting a bit excited about the prospect of a return to some real winter weather, and the prospect is still there.
There is a huge deep pool of cold air coming towards us from the east, it is thousands of miles away at the moment, but it is starting to gather itself and gain traction and will soon sweep across Russia.
At the same time, the Atlantic to our west is also much more energised than it has been over recent months.
These two forces are set to collide somewhere, and if they collide over the UK, there could be a proper winter blizzard for us.
It is only at the possible stage at the moment – I say 40% chance. Overall the trend for this week is fairly dry and fairly mild.
Tuesday will be fine, probably sunny, 9’C.
Wednesday will see a southerly breeze pick up (great in the summer!), I am expecting more cloud, maybe enough for a spot of rain, 10’C.
Thursday it gets milder, 12’C, again plenty of cloud and I expect some showery rain, nothing too significant though. Maybe some sunny breaks too.
Friday still mild, maybe even a 13’C if we get a little sunshine, however there is likely to be some rain to the west of the country and it probably will rain at some point.
Saturday I am hopeful of sunshine, though back down to 8’C.
Sunday and Monday will probably see a band of rain coming across – it will be quite thin as the cold air from the east will be trying to push its way in at this point, so the rain could last 12-24 hours when it sets it, but I don’t think it will be heavy – it may stay fine on Sunday during the day.
Once the rain clears, I expect the cold air to start to filter in, and temperatures to drop to around 2’C, with cold nights.
And then the fun and games begin – around Thursday 17th February, cold, proper cold winds and with an increasing chance of snow. Still too far out to work out any details or have any confidence though.