Believe it or not, it looks like this winter will end up being less cold than the last one, assuming you take winter to be December 1st to February 28th. So much cold air early on, and plenty of mild air afterwards.
I remain convinced that we are not finished with winter.
There is one almighty deep pool of cold air far to our east which is desperate to get here, but at the same time the Atlantic is very active and there are some major storms in the ocean, and a very intense blast of the jetstream is expected to our west.
It really is quite a battle – usually the Atlantic would win but I remain convinced that eventually the beast from the east will win, perhaps only briefly, but that is a victory.
Friday looks mainly cloudy with some outbreaks of rain, it will be mild, perhaps 13’C if we get a little sunshine which is possible but not especially likely.
Saturday sees a little ridge of high pressure building so it should be sunny, perhaps starting cloudy, 9’C.
Sunday, a band of rain will cross the country, and it may drag its heels, nothing too heavy, starting to feed in some of the cold air from the east too, 7’C.
Monday I am not overly sure about, the approaching low pressure may slip south towards France, giving us some showers perhaps, 7’C.
Tuesday, dry, increasingly cloudy, and perhaps a slight chill in the wind, 6’C.
Wednesday looks like being the key day to decide the weather for the rest of the month. Another low pressure approaches – the track it takes will determine whether the cold air can flood over the UK. I suspect that it will dart to the south-east towards Spain and then allow colder air in behind.
This does depend quite a lot on the behaviour of the jetstream, if it goes south then definitely we are in for sustained cold, if it splits and goes above and below, then we will probably get a cold snap.
Currently, it looks like there will be a frost on Wednesday night, and Thursday it will be sunny but chilly, 6’C.
If we are going to get this cold air, then Thursday will be the day that it really starts. And there will be a potential for snow if it comes off.
It might do, but it might not.
I am still expecting a wintry March. Lots to be interested about.
Oh and by the way, global temperatures have dropped significantly in the last couple of months.