Updated Weather Forecast

I have been suggesting for a while now that there was a distinct possibility of a cold and snowy spell, which would have backed up my long-range winter forecast.

I would have loved to have seen this come true, but it seems my heart is set to be broken.  There is however, hope of something even better than snow…dare I suggest the possibility of t-shirt weather in February for a day or so?  Again, same as this snow thing, I cannot promise, only suggest it could happen.

Forecasting is about probabilities at times – for example I can say that there will be showers on a specific day, but you might miss them all and have a lovely day, or you could be 10 miles away and get a constant stream of showers all day.  So when I say there is a chance, it is just that, I am alerting to the possibility of somewhat remarkable weather, I am not promising it.  When I am not certain of the weather, I will always try to give my estimated percentage chance of my favoured outcome.

So the battle of mild and wet Atlantic, and snow and cold from the east, which I have been talking about for a while is going to see the slight favourite win out, the Atlantic, which is a bit boring really.

Tuesday will see a band of rain coming up from the south during the morning hours, followed by showers, which could be quite lively for this time of year – possibly with a rumble of thunder, ooh!  8’C.
Wednesday will be fairly cloudy, rain will push in during the day though most of this will fall to the west, 7’C.
Thursday will be a similar kind of day, chance of some showery rain, especially to the west, but it might stay dry, 8’C.
Friday, mainly dry, chance of rain later in the west, slightly milder, 9’C.  This was the day that the cold weather should have come in, were it to win, I really cannot see this happening now.  I don’t rule out snow to the north-east of the country.  But it is looking increasingly unlikely.
Saturday should see high pressure building from the south, though there will likely still be this band of rain to get rid of first, it could end sunny and pleasant for many though, 11’C.
Sunday, high pressure starts to assert itself and the air circulation is being fetched all the way from central Africa, eventually – if it were July then the coming days could see temperatures of 35’C easily…however, it is February, so 13’C, assuming it is sunny, as there could be a fair amount of cloud around too.
Monday looks cloudy with showery rain, but mild at 12’C – if there is sunshine then it could be 15’C?  But I expect more cloud, that is the way it looks right now anyway.
Tuesday and Wednesday should see something more in the way of sunshine and the warm African air will have reached us by then, so 14’C if cloudy, perhaps 16’C, maybe 17’C, possibly 18’C if we get a really sunny day (fairly cloudy is more likely).

I remain convinced that there is more cold and wintry weather to come in March.  I did allude some weeks back to the possibility of an early spring (albeit after a cold snap which is now almost definitely not happening), and next week could be it.

So time to get your spring clothes out.

But don’t put your winter clothes away yet – there is a lot of cold air to our east and north – it wouldn’t take much effort for it to come flooding our way when the Atlantic switches off again, which it inevitably will at some point.

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