Updated Weather Forecast

OK I think my last forecast wasn’t brilliant. I am a bit disappointed in myself, I didn’t put enough effort into it and I rushed it. I did say it would get nicer during Sunday and Monday, but it turned out better than I predicted on my lazy forecast, and looking back I did think it probably would go this way, but I was too lazy to research it properly, hence I went for a safe option.

So I was right in that it got better, but I didn’t quite get the extent of it across for you. Apologies. I am learning still.

I’m going to talk long-term first.

All of the models, and all of the amateur forecasters I see, are either forecasting the end of July, to be similar to now, or to downgrade into a washout.

But I am not able to agree with any of those patterns.

I have been saying for a while that I am expecting a heat-wave at the end of July, similar to the record-breaking one but not quite as hot or as long, I would say 35’C.

I am still planning for it. If I get it wrong I know I will look pretty stupid. But at the same time, I predicted a noticeably cold winter for 2009/10 and I think I was pretty correct, give or take a few details. I also said this summer would be good, much better than previous, a bit cold at times early on (it was in May anyway), more unsettled later (it is becoming so) and would have a good chance of a heatwave. So I’m going for it. And I might pull back this time next week, and say no it isn’t happening, as it might not happen. I rate the chance at 60-70%, which is high enough for me to have confidence and for me to say, yes a short-lived heat-wave is on its way.

Onto my explanation.

All the synoptics have been there during the summer; a good-strength Azores high, unusual heights to the east, lots of hot air being pumped into southern Spain at times, and more recently low pressures not able to cross the UK, winding themselves up to our west due to the aforementioned high pressure cells, and now I think this could all come together at the end of July. Of course, it might not, but I am certain of very very hot weather over the south of Spain and everything else seems to add up. Do not say I have not prepared you for the possibility. 35’C at the end of July/beginning of August.

Onto what I do know.

Temperatures will be on a downwards slide this week, 25’C perhaps on Tuesday, 23’C on Wednesday, towards 21’C by Friday. And then it should gradually go up again, 22’C on Saturday I currently project (well maybe 24’C) and then up and up…if I am right.

But sunshine?

Sorry. Not yet.

Another unsettled week, but if you are at work, or are taking holiday in Ibiza, what do you care?

Tuesday will probably stay dry in the Reading area though there is rain encroaching. It will feel warm and muggy, and there will be a noticeably large amount of rain somewhere in central England, it could be the Reading area, but I suspect it will be somewhere to the west and north of Reading that will bear the brunt, but it will rain at some point to some extent.

Wednesday also unsettled, but the worst of the unsettled weather will be to the west, it shouldn’t be too wet.

Thursday I fancy to be a bit drier, but still chance of a shower or two.

Friday I do expect more in the way of heavy showers.

Saturday maybe a shower or two still left but much improved from Friday, and mainly fine.

The showers could be rather potent on any day if they occur around 4-6pm so be prepared.

And from then on things get better. And hotter. Much hotter???